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The Atlantic hurricane season may be nearing its end, but there is still the potential for a powerful storm to develop.
The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring two potential systems, one of which could affect the southeastern US and the Bahamas in the coming days.
Subtropical Nicole developed over northern Puerto Rico and brought scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the area. This system is forecast to move north and then northwest into the southwest Atlantic, where environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development.
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Nicole’s current forecast track is expected to affect the northern Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.
Although Nicole is currently a subtropical storm in the Atlantic, it still carries the risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall along much of the southeastern US coast, including eastern Florida and parts of the Bahamas this week.
Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the system’s progress as tropical storm, hurricane and hurricane watches are issued through early Monday for some of these areas. The NHC estimates an 80 percent chance of an occurrence over the next 48 hours and a 90 percent chance over the next five days.
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.
Frequency of storms in November
Although November does not produce Atlantic hurricanes every year, they have occurred during the last month of the season for several years. In fact, from 1950-2021, an average of one was produced every three years.
Since 1950, only a handful of hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin. Most importantly:
November 15-23, 1985. Hurricane Kate with sustained winds of 190 km/h
November 13-23, 1999: Hurricane Lenny with wind speed of 250 km/h
November 5-9, 2008: Typhoon Paloma with wind speed of 250 km/h
November 4-11, 2009: Typhoon Ida with wind speed of 165 km/h
November 20-26, 2016: Typhoon Otto with wind speed of 185 km/h
It was noteworthy that two storms occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic in November. This is the third consecutive year that Hurricanes Lisa and Martin have achieved this feat, the first time since 2001. If two additional systems form this month, it will tie with 1961, as November 1961 is the most active.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest developments on the Atlantic hurricane season.