New Mexico vs. Utah State Odds, Prediction: Expect Plenty of Points

New Mexico versus Utah State

New Mexico and Utah State meet in a Mountain West matchup between two teams that are locked in the conference standings. Both the Lobos and Aggies sit 6-3 in the conference, two games back of first place San Diego State.

New Mexico took down Air Force 81-73 on Friday to avoid a double overtime road trip to Nevada. The Lobos had three players in double figures, including a 24-point performance from junior Jamal Mashburn.

Utah State returns home after back-to-back games, taking down Fresno State 70-53 before falling to San Diego State 85-75.

The Aggies are one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the country, with five players averaging double figures.

To pick which of these offenses will dominate, let’s take a look at the odds and make predictions for New Mexico and Utah State.

New Mexico posted a 19-3 record, averaging 82.4 points per game.

The Lobos have been incredibly effective at creating penetration and getting to the free throw line. As a result, New Mexico is shooting just 27.5 percent of its field goal attempts from beyond the arc (354th nationally).

Despite this tendency not to get outside shots, the Lobos should find success against Utah State’s defense, which is holding teams to 37.4% shooting from the 3-point line (330th nationally).

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This extra production from the outside will stretch Utah State’s defense and allow point guards Jalen House and Mashburn to win their one-on-one matchups. This offensive duo is averaging 36.9 points per game.

Jamal Mashburn Jr. went for 33 last night, most recently averaging 23.5 points for New Mexico in 2023. Ranked 2nd in jumpers off the dribble. Lacks size and athleticism but is an excellent auto-creator and high-level shot-maker from mid-range and three.

— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) January 24, 2023

The Lobos are ranked 70th in adjusted offense, allowing 71.3 points per game (210th nationally).

This defense has struggled of late, giving up 83 points in its last three games.

This defense will need to improve on its offensive production in order to have success against a Utah State team.

The Eagles are one of the most offensive offenses in the country, ranking 13th in adjusted efficiency (117.2).

This offensive production comes from Utah State connecting on 40.7% of its 3-point attempts, which is the highest rate in the country.

These high percentages of shots from the perimeter were created with assists (10th nationally) as he scored 62.7% of his baskets.

Steven Ashworth and Taylor Funk are a versatile tandem that makes teams scratch their heads.
Integrated into the game:
36.7 ppg
7.3 APG
7.7-15.1 (50.9%) 3PT.

At 6’9, Funk is very versatile and creates a lot of mismatches. He could be the guy for a Utah State team that’s off to a 7-0 start.

– On The Clock (@OnThe_ClockBB) December 7, 2022

This outside shooting will be used heavily against a New Mexico team that allows opponents to hit 40.2% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range (276th nationally).

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In addition to this outside shooting, Utah State can find success inside against New Mexico’s offense, which allows its opponents to score 52.9% from 2-point range on 51.2% shooting.

Despite Utah State’s success on offense, the same can’t be said on defense. The Aggies, who rank 127th in adjusted efficiency, are allowing 71.1 points per game.

This weak immune system results from a lack of pressure. The Eagles cause turnovers on 15.6% of their opponents’ possessions (335th nationally).

Overall, Utah State will need to outplay New Mexico on the offensive end, a strategy that has been used repeatedly this season.

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New Mexico vs. Utah State betting options

This high-profile Mountain West matchup has all the ingredients for an electrifying track meet.

Both New Mexico and Utah State averaged less than 17 seconds per offensive possession.

This time it is mixed with two offenses designed to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing defense.

On New Mexico’s side, Mashburn and House could win their one-on-one matchup against a Utah State team that ranks 352nd in steal percentage.

For Utah State, this is a good matchup against a New Mexico defense that leaves open looks early and often from beyond the arc.

I will happily place a bet on a match where the ball will go down last.

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