2022 Midterm Election Results: Divided States of America

If you have come to enjoy the American politics of the past few years, the 2022 election brings you good news.

The final strength in the US Congress and state houses will not be known for days or sometimes weeks, but early results show that the Republicans will regain control of the House, while the Senate budget is still very early. predict. The GOP’s gains on Capitol Hill are the most important topic of recent legislation, as they mean President Joe Biden will be unable to move his priorities through Congress and will face new investigations and oversight.

But the first round of results also show a narrower-than-expected Republican victory, and less than some party leaders have sometimes predicted. This can confirm The best performance among the party of the president who has been in office since 2002. There are several factors that can explain the poor performance, including weak candidates, against the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States. Dobbs violation of abortion rights, and continues to anger former President Donald Trump.

More than anything, the small changes – despite inflation, economic expansion, and Biden’s continued unpopularity – show how American politics has become, resisting major changes even in times of turmoil and conflict.

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One sign of this new culture is that the results in different parts of the country look very different from what they used to be in the past. In Florida, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist, former governor and current US representative, by two margins, surpassing Trump’s 2020 state performance. Senator Marco Rubio also went on to easily win over Democrat Val Demings. .

Yet even as Republicans surged in the Sunshine State, they fell short of expectations elsewhere. Reps. Jennifer Wexton and Abigail Spanberger, both incumbent Virginia Democrats, are expected to win. In Rhode Island, Democrat Seth Magaziner defeated Republican Allan Fung. Some Democrats who were expected to be in trouble were on pace to win their races. In Ohio, Republican JD Vance was expected to beat Democrat Tim Ryan for the US Senate seat, but Democrats won several of the state’s most contested House races.

Because the world is so divided, futurists and pollsters have named a myriad of different races. Historically, lopsided elections often break down one-way – whichever party has a good night wins most of them, because voters in different states and regions are paying attention to the same policies. However the toss-ups are split so far in 2022.

One reason is that voters of both parties now see elections not just as opportunities to shape government opinion, but as existential battles. Mr. Biden and former President Barack Obama have warned in recent days that the future of democracy in the United States is at stake in this election, and Mr. Trump has warned in the past that the Democrats want to destroy America as we know it. (Although these words are similar, only one-Trump-wanted to overthrow the election and encouraged a violent group to attack the Capitol.) This means that voters are ready to stand with candidates who are unfit or who are in poor health instead of against them. mistake for the other team or just stay at home. This election is expected to be very high in the middle of the year.

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“As in the body, calculation leads to stiffness and rigidity: people become fixed and hard to get out of their minds,” political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck wrote in their latest book. The Bitter End. “The growth of calcification is a logical result of the growth of polarization…. New events tend to enter the debate that has a major role. And this means a small fluctuation from year to year in the results of the elections.”

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In this way, the 2022 elections are similar to recent history. In 2018, the Democrats had a significant advantage of 41 seats in the House, but they were able to do so in part because the Republicans participated in the majority coming into the election. The result only brought the whole country to the same level. Two years later, voters kicked Trump out of the White House, handing Biden a solid victory. He also sent more Republicans to the House, narrowing the margin for Democrats, while giving Democrats control of the Senate.

This paradoxical approach is born not of the preferences of voters in divided governments and bipartisanship, but of hard-fought ethnic conflicts in a deeply divided country emerging in different directions. In fact, support among Americans for siding with the opposition party has declined.

Whatever the motivation, the country will welcome a divided government in Washington. Elections, even tough ones, have consequences, and leaving the Democratic Congress and the White House will have far-reaching consequences. Unlike previous elections, such as 1994 or 2006, this year’s midterm elections do not seem to signal a long-term change in American politics. In fact, a fierce fight and a dynamic change of power seems impossible. The slog is here.


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